The Lemelson-MIT program made a press release yesterday citing that gasoline powered vehicles will become obsolete by 2015. This was mentioned on Tech Policy, a blog maintained by some current and past TPPers, so I am not going to elaborate on the same point again. Sure, the press release contains some forward-looking statements, but without sounding harsh to the teens, I say gasoline is here to stay. I am not here to belittle the teens but rather shed some light on why gasoline is still king since we talked about it in my Electrochemistry class.
Let's consider battery-powered cars since I am now more familiar with battery technology. I really think that battery-powered car is pretty much dead in the water. The current battery technology is impeding a successful debut of electric car in the marketplace. In terms of energy density, gasoline blows lead-acid battery away. Here are some numbers:
Energy density of gasoline = 2600 Wh/kg
Energy density of a lead-acid battery = 35 Wh/kg
Another constraining factor of electric car is the time it takes for it to refuel. When your car is out of gas, you go to the gas station to pump more gasoline to the car - typically a 5 minute endeavor. With lead-acid battery, this takes at least 3 hours to recharge. Then there is the question of price. Battery is very expensive. For example, a lead-acid battery costs about $4,000 and lasts about 2 years. Sure, there are more advanced battery technologies like NiMH and Li-Ion. They last longer, weigh lighter, and recharge faster; but they are also significantly more expensive. The bottom line is this: A 500 kg lead-acid battery costs $4,000 and takes 3 hours to recharge. Now compare to 1 liter of gasoline that cost $0.5 and takes about 3 seconds to transfer from the pump to the car.
There are other alternative fuel cars like fuel cell, bio-diesel; but they have yet to make it out of the lab. Call me a cynic, I highly doubt that any of these technologies will become cost-effective and reliable enough to replace gasoline technology in 9 years.
| 1/12/2006 8:22:16 PM (Eastern Standard Time, UTC-05:00) |
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